The election in October will be a test of Canada’s liberal values

NAHEED NENSHI, Calgary’s ebullient mayor, says that when he was elected in 2010—becoming the first Muslim to lead a large North American city—only the foreign media brought up his religion. The local press never mentioned it. That changed when he ran for re-election for a third term in 2017. People “suddenly started talking about race and religion”, sometimes abusively, online. Although his rivals avoided bigotry, it encouraged formerly non-voting racists to turn up at the polls. He still won. Four years ago, when Justin Trudeau was elected, “Canada was bucking the trend,” says Mr Nenshi. Now it is learning that “we’re not immune at all” to the political maladies of the age.

The point of Mr Trudeau’s premiership has largely been to boost Canada’s immunity with a liberal tonic that combines social justice and environmentalism with advocacy of globalisation and a dash of redistribution. The test of whether he has succeeded will not be whether he wins the election in October. Rather, it will come if he loses. Would a Conservative government sustain the broader themes of Canadian liberalism even as it discarded Mr Trudeau’s particular brand of it?

Geography, history, political culture, the electoral system, the structure of the economy and the welfare state all argue for optimism. They keep the political climate temperate....

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